Authors:
– Michael Abramson, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University – ORCID

– Yuming Guo, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University – ORCID, ResearchGate

– Shanshan Li, School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University – ORCID, ResearchGate

Abstract: »There is an increasing interest in the link between ambient temperature and sexual crime in the context of climate change. However, existing studies are limited in evaluating the acute effect of temperature and rarely estimate the attributable burden. Here, we show that in seven large US cities, every 5?°C rise in daily mean temperature was associated with a 4.5% [95% confidence interval (CI): 2.8???6.3%] increase in sex offenses in the following 0-8 days. The associations were stronger in hot and cold season compared to moderate season, and could be enhanced by higher relative humidity and precipitation. The associations were only significant for sodomy, fondling and rape, and for sex offenses happened in certain locations (open space, education, street but not residence). We estimated that 2.6% (95%CI: 1.7-3.6%) sex offenses were attributable to temperatures above city-specific median temperatures, corresponding to a mean annual sex offense rate of 2.9/100,000 (95%CI: 1.9-4.0/100,000). Our findings highlight the potential rising sexual crime along with climate change and provide useful information for targeted preventions.« (Source: Sustainable Cities and Society)

Contents:

	Abstract (p. 1)
	1. Introduction (p. 1)
	2. Methods (p. 2)
		2.1. Data collection (p.2)
			2.1.2. Weather and other data (p.2)
		2.2. Statistical analyses (p. 2)
			2.2.1. Assessing the temperature-sex offenses association (p. 2)
			2.2.2. Calculating the attributable fraction of sex offenses due to temperature (p. 3)
	3. Results (p. 4)
		3.1. Descriptive results (p. 4)
		3.2. The association between temperature and sex offenses (p. 4)
		3.3. Sex offenses attributable to temperature (p. 5)
		3.4. Results of sensitivity analyses (p. 5)
	4. Discussion (p. 5)
		4.1. Comparison with previous studies (p. 5)
		4.2. Potential mechanisms underlying the temperature-sex offenses association (p. 6)
		4.3. The modification effects of humidity, precipitation, season, location, and offense type (p. 6)
		4.4. The lag impacts of ambient temperature on sex offense (p. 6)
		4.5. Implications of our findings (p. 6)
		4.6. Strengths and limitations (p. 7)
	5. Conclusions (p. 7)
	Declaration of Competing Interest (p. 7)
	Acknowledgements (p. 7)
	Appendix A (p. 7)
		Data quality check (p. 7)

Wikipedia: History of the Americas: History of the United States / History of the United States (1991–2008), History of the United States (2008–present) | Sex and the law: Sexual assault / Sex crimes in the United States